Emmy Predictions: Comedy

For those of you that read this blog know I am a movie guy, but come award season I like to show that not only do I watch a lot of movies but I also watch a lot of television. I really need to get out more, but it’s too late for that so for now here are some of my best guesses for how this year's Emmy awards will be handed out. First we'll take a look at the comedy field.


Outstanding Variety, Comedy or Musical Series
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Real Time with Bill Mahar
Saturday Night Live

This actually isn't in the comedy field but I think it deserves mentioning just because how impressive it is. Last year I wrote a hell of a piece about why The Daily Show would finally lose. And I stand by it for all of those reasons but to sum it up it wasn't their best year and Conan and Colbert were both ON. Stewart didn't even show up last year which means assumedly he had something more important than getting one of the highest honors for television; already knew what it felt like to win and didn't want to go; or maybe thought the competition was better and more deserving. Well he still won, and now I am convinced if he wasn't going to lose last year he certainly isn't going to lose this year. The Daily Show will win its ninth straight award in this field. How many more years do you think Colbert has before he just loses it and goes postal on his past employer.


Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

This is a tough category to predict. Last year’s winner is this year’s Emmy host and I don’t even know how she is going to do with that, I hope well but it is tough to tell. Last year she was the clear cut winner for her negative slams and one liners, but to end season one they tried to show her evolution and make her a better person. So this season they had to split her time between glee club hater and being sympathetic. The character was at her best when she was mean and awful that is why she won, to give her a heart and redeem no longer makes her the best. While I don’t watch Hot in Cleveland never count out Betty White, she is cute as hell and still hits all her marks. On merit the best performance would have to be Jolie Bowen, she doesn’t get all the laughs but she helps to make all the people around her funnier.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’ Neil, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

This is going to someone on Modern Family. Jon Cryer basically did a half season of work so how could he get the award, and Ryan Murphy took all the emotion and love that was in Kurt’s character from season one and instead made him a soapbox to send out his message. Any of the other four men could win it, putting Jesse Tyler Ferguson in a distant fourth. Eric Stonestreet won the award last year, but Ed O’Neil and Ty Burrell were better this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burrell won but Ed O’Neil is the heart of the series. He wins the award on his first nomination, an award that he deserves.



Outstanding Actress in a Comedy
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Is Nurse Jackie a comedy? Do people laugh at that show? Getting past that, I have never enjoyed Raising Hope, so have a tough time pulling for Martha Plimpton. And while Melissa McCarthy was fantastic in the movies she has been good on Mike and Molly but not amazing.Amy Poehler has been fantastic on Parks and Rec. She leads a fantastic cast and shares the spotlight just as much as it shines on herself. She is the one I believe will win, but this is a tough category to predict and may face difficult competition from Laura Linney who not only manages to be funny but in a show that deals with cancer can also be very touching and Emmy voters love that mix.


Outstanding Actor in a Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carrell, The Office
Johnny Gelecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

This may be the biggest lock of the night. There is no chance that Steve Carrell doesn't walk away with this award. That is not to say that he necessarily deserves it for his work this past season. The award would be given to him for the sum of his work over the past seven seasons on the office and his past six nominations. For all of that, mostly the first three seasons and a little bit for seasons four and five, he will win the award. While Carrell deserves it for all that he has done, Louis C.K. has been hilarious all season, watch the masturbation episode and tell me he’s not funniest actor on television right now.


Outstanding Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock


Does Modern Family have what it takes to become the next 30 Rock, well 30 Rock certainly doesn’t. The show is still smart but for the past two years I have enjoyed the first half of NBC’s Thursday line up more than the second half. To that point Parks and Recreation had a fantastic season. While it was upsetting to not get a fall debut last year, by getting pushed back to the spring it allowed the creative staff to fine tune some of the earlier episodes which only made it funnier. Of the nominees this was the funniest show of the year, and I would be willing to wager that this may be the high point for the series because of the extra time they were allotted. The best show of the year though would probably still be Modern Family. The actors on the show are phenomenal as evident by all of the adults being nominated for acting awards. The jokes are good; there are countless laugh out loud moments but the difference may be the rather clichéd ending where the lone voice over tries to wrap everything up into a neat package. The reason this trick has become so clichéd is because it is effective at doing what they need, and that is tying the episode up. The show’s heart and the love the characters have for each other is what give Modern Family the edge.

Why the Daily Show loses

For the past eight years the Daily Show has come out the winner Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Program. The streak ends on Sunday as Stewart faces his biggest competition to date in two of his friends and some jezebel.

A few months ago The Daily Show had to deal with some negative publicity after Jezebel posted an article sighting many acts of sexism on the show including a lack of female guests, few female correspondents and producers, along with the recent hiring of Olivia Munn which many viewed was based on her looks over her wit. The article made its rounds through the media with FOX News getting some knocks in, along with Daniel Tosh and Stephen Colbert poking a little fun at the issue. The whole subject more or less came to a halt once the women of the Daily Show posted an open letter on their website firing back and having a little fun of their own (especially towards the end). The whole thing by now is long forgotten as we have the attention span of small birds, but for those voters who may feel that the article had its points it may cost the host a few votes with older female voters, which could prove important if the race is close. Below are the real reasons why Stewart will lose this year.

This past weekend the Colbert Report writers claimed the EMMY for the best writing for a Variety, Music or Comedy Program and Colbert's character hams it up as usual after the big win. What this really indicates is that Colbert’s writing team had some of the best content in this category. While Stewart’s tone and his interviews have become a staple Colbert has recently been able to outshine Stewart in news gathering. Stewart has the advantage on Colbert as The Daily Show takes the first slot. Despite this Colbert has beat Stewart to the punch and has been "reporting" on stories a day before Stewart gets to them. Maybe that was enough to give the writing team the edge, but it helps proves that Colbert’s crew is gaining the competitive edge with fresher writing. Stewart tends to write towards specific stories while Stephen can touches upon a broader range of issues.

Meanwhile for those who don't watch the programming regularly, this year the Colbert report submitted the first episode of Operation Iraqi Stephen: Going Commando. The week long series, besides being a tremendous tribute to the troops, is pure EMMY bait. He came out on stage every episode with golf club in hand as a constant homage to comedy legend Bob Hope. His B-block usually contained video of him with the military either trying his hand in boot camp or throwing up in the back of a jet. He had a barrage of Washington elites sending messages to the troops he was performing for. But the piece de resistance came when the Commander in Chief ordered his general to shave Stephen's hair. All this and more may be why Colbert’s show wins its first EMMY outside of the writing category.

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Obama Orders Stephen's Haircut - Ray Odierno
http://www.colbertnation.com/
Colbert Report Full Episodes 2010 Election Fox News

But wait there's more. The short lived Tonight Show with Conan O' Brien is getting a lot of press and public support and has been for the past seven months (for those keeping score at home that's exactly how long his show was on-air for). Choosing not to destroy the legacy of the house that Carson built O'Brien decided to step down as host of the tonight show. Throngs of fans showed their support for the host; unfortunately those same fans couldn't be bothered to actually watch the show. Some of the best TV came out of the last week of programming where he featured waves of fantastic guests, performances and bits that weren't all that funny as much as they were ridiculously expensive. But the clincher may have been his classy speech towards the end of his final show.




With the effort that Colbert put in this year, what he really may do is split the vote of those who enjoy smart political commentary. Conan's show had a completely different feel to The Daily Show and The Colbert Report and so he will steal some of Jon's typical voters as well since all three programs speak to the same demographic. Not only that but I'm sure there are plenty of people who would love to see NBC execs squirm as the man that they helped boot prove triumphant on their own network.

While I hope that this is the year that Colbert finally gets his dues but this onslaught of support will probably get Conan on the stage to accept the honor. Either with this year the streak ends for the Daily Show with Jon Stewart