Oscar Predictions 2012: Part 1

Here is the problem with this year's award ceremony. It was a down year for movies. Last year there were so many good movies to pick from (and they still went with the obvious choice in the King's Speech). After that they showed their age leaving movies like Drive and 50/50 off the ballots. Meanwhile love them or hate them movies like Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close were nominated for best picture because of the way the voting is structured. So with some big snubs and with so few movies to choose from it seems like everything is pretty much locked up but we'll take a look at eight of the biggest categories. Today I'll take a look at the writers and directors

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Peter Staughan and Bridget O'Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

It looked like at one point Hugo could win the award but has since been taken over by the Hawaiian wave that is The Descendants. With a win from the WGA and major last minute surge overall The Descendants have been creeping up the Oscar ballots. Typically the Academy likes to recognize only one writer rather than a team for whatever reason. But Alexander Payne has been receiving much of the adulation for the movie, including this blog, more so than his contributors so that may give it the advantage. Moneyball probably deserves the award though as Sorkin was able to take a book that was completely unfilmable and turn it into an Oscar contender full of quick dialogue and a story that can be enjoyed by the non sports fan. That is talent.

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristin Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Wouldn't you love to see Bridesmaids win, well I would but if you had to go with a nostalgic pick that vote would probably be going to Midnight in Paris which seems like a lock for the award. It has the rare quality of being a movie that should win and many experts are predicting to win. If for nothing else you had to enjoy the conversations from Ernest Hemingway and Salvador Dali. Although with a big night predicted from Michel Hazanavicius don't be surprised if this movie takes this award with all the momentum the movie has gathered.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

What a group of talented directors this year. Yes Malick is a weird guy, but Badlands is frickin bad ass. Then again he has dinosaurs in his movie so he is probably out of any serious contention. Scorsese made a wonderful movie about movies, and the Academy loves self promotion, plus he ventured far out of his comfort zone. Payne and Allen went the opposite direction and told a story they have told before but both do a really good job telling it. Frankly any of these directors are deserving but all of the momentum seems to be surrounding Hazanavicius and with a win from the DGA and favored to win the big award he seems like a lock to win for best director.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at the acting category.