Oscar Predictions 2012: Best Picture

At one point in the early going with so few quality movies to pick from it really felt like this could be anyone's year. But then one of these movies, as it usually goes, kept winning all the awards and receiving all the praise. So below is a look at this year's best picture nominees

And the nominees are
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

This must have been an off year for me because I didn't see a couple of the movies on the list. So feel free to denounce me as an expert but I really have no desire to see some of these movies. Those movies are Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Tree of Life. I didn't want to see them for different reasons. I didn't want to see Extremely Loud because it got a forty fuckin six on rotten tomatoes. How is this movie nominated for the award? Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol came out the same weekend and got a 93. What the hell is that, I would much rather see Mission Impossible nominated because as far as I can tell it was a better movie. But because Extremely Loud's explosion was a sad one, it got the nod. I can't wait to never see this movie. I also did not see Tree of Life because I am so worried that I may actually like this movie and what that would say about me as a person and pretentious movie-goer. What if I actually liked it and became one of those people looking down on everyone else mocking them because they thought the flower was just a flower. I can't support that. There was just such a polarizing feel to the movie that I couldn't take it seriously and never wanted to spend the money to see it.

There are a couple movies on here that I didn't enjoy either but did see in theaters. Namely Horse War and The Help. Spielberg really went all Spielberg on this one, but he forgets that horses are not as universally beloved as other animals, while beautiful I don't know many people that would call them cute, they're too big to be cute. And then he asked his old pal John Williams to keep on Spielberging it with that overly dramatic soundtrack. Then there was The Help which is actually high on people's list for movies that could win. Partially attributed to the fact that people love movies about overcoming racism just look at The Blindside or Crash for recent proof. What else do those movies have in common, white people fixing racism. Probably because the academy is full of old white dudes who I'm sure thought Birth of a Nation was brilliant. This is the only kind of overcoming racism that the older voters can really support. But with nothing going for it besides the acting of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer this movie is still a long shot.

Woody Allen and Martin Scorsese are beloved directors, but you know who does hate Woody Allen, The Academy. Midnight in Paris is too quirky to be considered for best picture but just quirky enough to grab an award for the screenplay so that will probably have to do. Meanwhile while The Academy does love movies about movies but they are too old to enjoy the 3D technology and plus they didn't win anything from the guilds and that may be too much to overcome for Hugo to win.

Moneyball really is a tremendous movie, it is sharply written, has fantastic actors, it’s a great story that anyone can enjoy. But being a sports movie is driving it down the ballots list, also not helping is the fact that their director Bennett Miller didn't get nominated for directing. And if there is one category most closely linked to the best picture field it is best director. Lacking this nomination hurts any realistic shot this movie has. Despite it actually being one of the best movies on this list.

The Descendants won the Golden Globe for best picture in the drama category. This is usually a great precursor for the Oscars. George Clooney is fantastic, Alexander Payne is beloved by The Academy and it is the perfect mix of comedy and tragedy. But the biggest selling point of the movie is Clooney and his performance, and the fact that The Artist's Jean Dujardin is so close in the voting hurts the chances to overtake the clear favorite...

The Artist is going to win the award for Best Picture no doubt about it. And for all the reasons mentioned above, Michel Hazanavicius is a favorite to win Best Director, it is a movie about movies, it’s quirky and lighthearted and as I previously mentioned it is impossible to walk out of the theater without a smile. Plus the dog is adorable. Academy voters are old enough to remember seeing the black and whites and that nostalgia will certainly lock in their votes. While it will win the award this year, any other year it probably wouldn’t, it really is a cute movie and that is the best way to describe it but cute is not synonymous for a great film. This cute movie is a fry cry away from the brilliance that was Social Network, Black Swan, or Blue Valentine.

Let me know what you think. What did you think were the best movies of the year? Let me know. And enjoy Sunday.

Oscar Predictions 2012: Part 1

Here is the problem with this year's award ceremony. It was a down year for movies. Last year there were so many good movies to pick from (and they still went with the obvious choice in the King's Speech). After that they showed their age leaving movies like Drive and 50/50 off the ballots. Meanwhile love them or hate them movies like Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close were nominated for best picture because of the way the voting is structured. So with some big snubs and with so few movies to choose from it seems like everything is pretty much locked up but we'll take a look at eight of the biggest categories. Today I'll take a look at the writers and directors

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Peter Staughan and Bridget O'Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

It looked like at one point Hugo could win the award but has since been taken over by the Hawaiian wave that is The Descendants. With a win from the WGA and major last minute surge overall The Descendants have been creeping up the Oscar ballots. Typically the Academy likes to recognize only one writer rather than a team for whatever reason. But Alexander Payne has been receiving much of the adulation for the movie, including this blog, more so than his contributors so that may give it the advantage. Moneyball probably deserves the award though as Sorkin was able to take a book that was completely unfilmable and turn it into an Oscar contender full of quick dialogue and a story that can be enjoyed by the non sports fan. That is talent.

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristin Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Wouldn't you love to see Bridesmaids win, well I would but if you had to go with a nostalgic pick that vote would probably be going to Midnight in Paris which seems like a lock for the award. It has the rare quality of being a movie that should win and many experts are predicting to win. If for nothing else you had to enjoy the conversations from Ernest Hemingway and Salvador Dali. Although with a big night predicted from Michel Hazanavicius don't be surprised if this movie takes this award with all the momentum the movie has gathered.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

What a group of talented directors this year. Yes Malick is a weird guy, but Badlands is frickin bad ass. Then again he has dinosaurs in his movie so he is probably out of any serious contention. Scorsese made a wonderful movie about movies, and the Academy loves self promotion, plus he ventured far out of his comfort zone. Payne and Allen went the opposite direction and told a story they have told before but both do a really good job telling it. Frankly any of these directors are deserving but all of the momentum seems to be surrounding Hazanavicius and with a win from the DGA and favored to win the big award he seems like a lock to win for best director.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at the acting category.

The Descendants

After winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama The Descendants have to be one of the front runners to walk away with Best Picture along with several other awards in the big night. If The Artist represents everything that is happy and good, than The Descendants may be the exact opposite. The difference in tone may decide which film walks away with the statuette. The Descendants is both funny and devastating and captures the moments in life we fear the most with eloquence.

George Clooney stars as Matt King a working father who at his best considers himself second rate. After his wife is injured in a boating accident within the opening sequence of the movie he needs to step up and be something more to his family. All the while he and his cousins hold the fate of some of Hawaii's last bit of land in their hand as they are the direct descendants from Hawaii's last ruling family.

Clooney turns out of his best performances for the troubled father. Think Up in the Air, but that character in the third act. Don't get me wrong he is still playing Clooney in the movie, but with a definite lack of togetherness and cool. He plays the character effortlessly which makes the performance that much more believable and heartbreaking. He allows his character to bumble a little bit, to be awkward, because that is normal people would react. Matt King doesn't have all the right answer or the right moves and often makes mistakes, and that's what makes the character so endearing and relatable.

Clooney plays the part of Matt King perfectly, he allows for the awkward moments to seep into his performance. The movie comes off as a perfect balance between dramatic and funny. The Hawaiian backdrop is wonderful juxtaposition to the mundane and depressing he finds himself in. Not every action gets the perfect reaction; sometimes he comes off as downright cruel when facing stressful moments which anyone can relate to in wishing they could take what they said back.

Alexander Payne, who wrote and directed the movie, loves making characters who find themselves on the brink and who are already broken. He did great work in Election, About Schmidt, and Sideways. It is tough to believe this is his first movie since 2004, but Payne knows his strengths and knows the stories that he wants to tell. His experience with lead characters who are imperfect help to drive the best performance out of Clooney and what makes the movie so relatable.

There is a lot in the movie to feel down about, after all the movie opens with Matt King's wife stuck in a coma. His daughters are difficult girls to deal with, his eldest seems to be dating a complete toolbag and the people around him all seem very selfish. But as some people do, the characters tend to use comedy as a way to cope with their grief and that endears us to some of the softer moments in the movie. We see the character lean on each other for strength and it is when people are thrust into difficult situations that we often see them at their best. The characters become more endearing as the movie progresses.

The best performance besides that of Clooney may come from his eldest daughter played by Shailene Woodley. She plays the part of the spoiled brat so well, but when she needs to be she quickly becomes her father most trusted confidant. She makes the transition believable and that is the most important part of the role, she is able to be hated as the movie starts and seamlessly becomes beloved by the time the credits role. Beau Bridges does a great job as well having his character move in the opposite direction. He plays laid back so well that his callousness sneaks up on you. Every member of the supporting cast does a fantastic job of advancing the story and elevating the lead.

Just as the movie is looking to soften up though and place the audience at ease Payne is quick to hit them again and bring down the whole tone of the movie. The movie has a beautiful reality to it, and makes you feel what the actors are going through is genuine. It is rare to have a movie deal with such a depressing reality and give such a honest reaction that you can still walk out of the movie with a feeling of hope. The Descendants walk that line the whole time and on February 26th may be walking away with the best picture award. A-