Emmy Predictions 2012: Comedy

The Emmy Awards are this Sunday. And for those of you that don't watch nearly as much TV as I do but want to have an informed opinion here are who I think will win the awards. First up lets talk about the comedies.

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR

Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett in "Modern Family"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett in "Modern Family"
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy in "Modern Family"
Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker in "Modern Family"
Max Greenfield as Schmidt in "New Girl"
Bill Hader as various characters in "Saturday Night Live"

Usually what happens is when several actors from the same show compete in the same category they steal each others votes.  In this case it allows voters to see more scenes from those actors who may only submit one episode each. This hurts Max Greenfield the most as Schmidt in New Girl steals literally every show and is the main reason this show is any kind of good. What hurts the most about this category is not seeing Nick Offerman's Ron Swanson here from Parks and Recreation, he should win this category easy but can't even get nominated because for some reason Jesse Ferguson keeps getting on the ballot. In the end it should come down to Ed O' Neil who is somehow still Emmy-less and Ty Burrell who won last year. Burrell really is the lead character on the show but because the show is an ensemble piece everyone submits in the supporting category. O'Neill submitted his episodes with the most heart, while Burrell was outright funny in his and for that reason I think Burrell will win.

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS

Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler in "The Big Bang Theory"
Kathryn Joosten as Karen McCluskey in "Desperate Housewives"
Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy in "Modern Family"
Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett in "Modern Family"
Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow in "Nurse Jackie"
Kristen Wiig as various characters in "Saturday Night Live"

This could be the toughest category where really four of the six could win.  You can toss out Merritt Wever immediately mostly because the other women are so strong.  Mayiam Bialik started out as a guest star and is now considered a series regular, and while the episode she submitted involving a tiara is actually funny, she is still not in the episode all that much. The same is the case for Kathryn Joosten who passed away earlier this year, she has won Emmys before but it has never been in this category, but unfortunately Emmy voters usually don't get too sentimental.  It seems like it could come down to the reigning champion Julie Bowen and Krieten Wiig in her SNL swan song.   Kristen Wiig helped elevate SNL to new heights and when we look back I inagine her name will be one we remember, but the episode gets kind of sappy and her graduation moment with Mick Jagger is an average moment.  Where as once again Julie Bowen is outright funny.  If I had to pick one I would say Julie Bowen will win, but don't be surprised if Wiig walks away with the award.

COMEDY ACTOR

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper in "The Big Bang Theory"
Larry David as Himself in "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan in "House of Lies"
Louis C.K. as Louie in "Louie"
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy in "30 Rock"
Jon Cryer as Alan Harper in "Two and a Half Men"

Forget the rest this is a two man race.  It is down to Jim Parsons and Louis C.K. and god does "Louie" deserve it.  This may be one of the smartest comedies out there.  For those still shying away, I understand, it can be an uncomfortable show to watch, sometimes there isn't one funny moment in the episode.  The show stands on its own and is just great television.  For those of you who have Netflix I encourage you to go back and watch this series.  He deserves this win for this show, since it somehow didn't get nominated as best series.  That being said I'm sure somehow Jim Parsons will win for "The Big Bang Theory" because people like stupid things.  That's not true, its not all stupid I just don't find this show funny and am amazed when people do, it does have its bright spots and like every Chuck Lorre show he finds fantastic actors to deliver his one or two funny lines in the episode which rely on snark and being loud. On the flip side at least Parsons is playing someone else unlike Louie who is playing a version of himself, and no actor has ever won for playing themselves.  For being a show about science there are a lot of smarter shows out there than "The Big Bang Theory," such as "Louie."  But the better actor is probably Jim Parsons because he is, you know, acting.

COMEDY ACTRESS

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath in "Girls"
Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn in "Mike & Molly"
Zooey Deschanel as Jess Day in "New Girl"
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton in "Nurse Jackie"
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in "Parks and Recreation"
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon in "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in "Veep"

HOW HAS AMY POEHLER NEVER WON.  A writer, a supporting actress on SNL and now as lead in "Parks and Recreation."  She has deserved it ten times over, and got upset by Melissa McCarthy last year when she likely won the award more for her performance in "Bridesmaids" than she did for "Mike and Molly."  Zooey Deschanel is irresistibly charming, loved my tons of fans, and the critics all like "New Girl."  Julia Louis Dreyfus could also win as a perennial Emmy favorite and a highly stylized show with "Veep."  But I'm going with my heart on this one, that being said I'm sure it is meant to be broken.

COMEDY SERIES

"The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)
"Girls" (HBO)
"Modern Family" (ABC)
"30 Rock" (NBC)
"Veep" (HBO)

"Modern Family" has won the past three years because the show is charming, heartfelt, family-friendly, and funny to boot.  "Girls" could be a contender in the future but the show has to develop more and was more worried about investing viewers in the characters.  If the actor's contract negotiations had gone on longer that could have left a sour note in people's mouths but it didn't so expect "Modern Family" to win the award again.

What do you think?  Do you think I guessed right?  Do you believe "The Big Bang Theory" is the greatest thing since you were able to slice a wheat compound? Let me know.  And tomorrow we'll discuss all the Dramas.

Emmy Predictions: Comedy

For those of you that read this blog know I am a movie guy, but come award season I like to show that not only do I watch a lot of movies but I also watch a lot of television. I really need to get out more, but it’s too late for that so for now here are some of my best guesses for how this year's Emmy awards will be handed out. First we'll take a look at the comedy field.


Outstanding Variety, Comedy or Musical Series
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Real Time with Bill Mahar
Saturday Night Live

This actually isn't in the comedy field but I think it deserves mentioning just because how impressive it is. Last year I wrote a hell of a piece about why The Daily Show would finally lose. And I stand by it for all of those reasons but to sum it up it wasn't their best year and Conan and Colbert were both ON. Stewart didn't even show up last year which means assumedly he had something more important than getting one of the highest honors for television; already knew what it felt like to win and didn't want to go; or maybe thought the competition was better and more deserving. Well he still won, and now I am convinced if he wasn't going to lose last year he certainly isn't going to lose this year. The Daily Show will win its ninth straight award in this field. How many more years do you think Colbert has before he just loses it and goes postal on his past employer.


Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

This is a tough category to predict. Last year’s winner is this year’s Emmy host and I don’t even know how she is going to do with that, I hope well but it is tough to tell. Last year she was the clear cut winner for her negative slams and one liners, but to end season one they tried to show her evolution and make her a better person. So this season they had to split her time between glee club hater and being sympathetic. The character was at her best when she was mean and awful that is why she won, to give her a heart and redeem no longer makes her the best. While I don’t watch Hot in Cleveland never count out Betty White, she is cute as hell and still hits all her marks. On merit the best performance would have to be Jolie Bowen, she doesn’t get all the laughs but she helps to make all the people around her funnier.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’ Neil, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

This is going to someone on Modern Family. Jon Cryer basically did a half season of work so how could he get the award, and Ryan Murphy took all the emotion and love that was in Kurt’s character from season one and instead made him a soapbox to send out his message. Any of the other four men could win it, putting Jesse Tyler Ferguson in a distant fourth. Eric Stonestreet won the award last year, but Ed O’Neil and Ty Burrell were better this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burrell won but Ed O’Neil is the heart of the series. He wins the award on his first nomination, an award that he deserves.



Outstanding Actress in a Comedy
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Is Nurse Jackie a comedy? Do people laugh at that show? Getting past that, I have never enjoyed Raising Hope, so have a tough time pulling for Martha Plimpton. And while Melissa McCarthy was fantastic in the movies she has been good on Mike and Molly but not amazing.Amy Poehler has been fantastic on Parks and Rec. She leads a fantastic cast and shares the spotlight just as much as it shines on herself. She is the one I believe will win, but this is a tough category to predict and may face difficult competition from Laura Linney who not only manages to be funny but in a show that deals with cancer can also be very touching and Emmy voters love that mix.


Outstanding Actor in a Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carrell, The Office
Johnny Gelecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

This may be the biggest lock of the night. There is no chance that Steve Carrell doesn't walk away with this award. That is not to say that he necessarily deserves it for his work this past season. The award would be given to him for the sum of his work over the past seven seasons on the office and his past six nominations. For all of that, mostly the first three seasons and a little bit for seasons four and five, he will win the award. While Carrell deserves it for all that he has done, Louis C.K. has been hilarious all season, watch the masturbation episode and tell me he’s not funniest actor on television right now.


Outstanding Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock


Does Modern Family have what it takes to become the next 30 Rock, well 30 Rock certainly doesn’t. The show is still smart but for the past two years I have enjoyed the first half of NBC’s Thursday line up more than the second half. To that point Parks and Recreation had a fantastic season. While it was upsetting to not get a fall debut last year, by getting pushed back to the spring it allowed the creative staff to fine tune some of the earlier episodes which only made it funnier. Of the nominees this was the funniest show of the year, and I would be willing to wager that this may be the high point for the series because of the extra time they were allotted. The best show of the year though would probably still be Modern Family. The actors on the show are phenomenal as evident by all of the adults being nominated for acting awards. The jokes are good; there are countless laugh out loud moments but the difference may be the rather clichéd ending where the lone voice over tries to wrap everything up into a neat package. The reason this trick has become so clichéd is because it is effective at doing what they need, and that is tying the episode up. The show’s heart and the love the characters have for each other is what give Modern Family the edge.