EMMY Predictions: Drama

How about the dramas?

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Rose Byrne (Damages)
Sharon Gless (Burn Notice)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)

I really need to start watching Burn Notice more, not only does it contain the best chin on any b-list movie actor ever but it has Sharon Gless. She is all the buzz and a definate favorite to walk away with the statuette.

But I can't look passed Joan in Mad Men, and I mean that in every sense of the word. Christina Hendricks is simply stunning and I thought deserved the nomination last year, especially episode 12 in season two when her fiancé visits the office. This year she submitted the episode when he doesn't get the position he needs and the horse that she bet on failed big. I can't wait for this guy to go off to war and get killed and for Joan to have some good ole fashioned widow sex. But I'm rambling she is the best female character on the show, and that includes her competition Elisabeth Moss. Moss's character developed the most in the series but the way Hendricks walks the fine line of strong sexual goddess and frail woman is a tribute to women of the sixties. She deserves the win, plus I love to watch her walk.



Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age)
Michael Emerson (Lost)
Terry O’Quinn (Lost)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Martin Short (Damages)
John Slattery (Mad Men)

The two most deserving actors on this list are going to cancel each other out making room for a clear third place candidate to walk away the winner.

Michael Emerson and Terry O'Quinn each have a win to their name. Emerson as Ben Linus trying to redeem his evil ways from the whole series is fantastic. In the first seasons he was in he was always a step ahead, season five featured a role reversal which was strong enough to get him the win last year. This year featured him vulnerable, as a man trying to find his way with a chapter in his life coming to an end and him coming to face all the demons and monstrosities he committed in his search for control. Meanwhile Terry O'Quinn was playing two different characters and very differently from any other character in the series. SPOILER ALERT (FOR THOSE WHO STILL WANT TO WATCH THE SERIES) He was asked to play the main villain of the entire series as the Man in Black controlled his body and he played the season one version of himself as well. Even when I was certain that he was the ultimate baddie of LOST I still thought that the character could be redeemed. I really enjoyed him as the man in black and enjoyed the symmetry of having him be the antagonist in the first and final season. SPOILER OVER His mind games and abuse of women make him my personal choice to win the award.

But like I said before these two men are going to cancel each other out as they are both so deserving and both on the same series. So I am going with Aaron Paul to actually claim the big award, he deserves praise and certainly showed off his chops in the season but he stands in the shadow of the men of LOST.



Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama
Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights)
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Matthew Fox (Lost)
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Hugh Laurie (House M.D.)

Without a doubt this is the hardest category to predict. Each one of these actors could walk away with the award and frankly each one of these actors would make the academy proud if they won, so let's try and break it down best we can.

Chandler has not only deserved to be nominated but he deserved to be on this list so many years before. Well except the second season, we all have down years. And no matter how you feel about Lost Matthew Fox has been the heart of the show and also probably deserved to be on the list earlier. His final episode is something special and the last 15 minutes of the episode is the very best acting he has done in his whole career. What may work against Fox is the ensemble nature of the show. Any weak spot may cost any actor the award and this may be Fox's biggest adversity, but voters do love a good finale.

This may be Cranston's weakest year, but never doubt a two time champion. The academy can feel confident voting for him without putting too much effort in knowing that his portrayal of the character is always award winning, and it is. Another sure slam dunk for an award is Jon Hamn who portrays the biggest douche bag on television Don Draper as someone you can't help but root for. Similarly I think he has done better, such as this season as he is being forced to redefine himself and his self worth in a brand new agency living a life he has never known. It's still early but I like him to win the award next year with his character actually facing some strife.

Michael C. Hall has always done great work as the frigid father figure dueling with his own personality. And for those of you who haven't see the episode he submitted see it now. Actually scratch that see the whole thing, you may lose out on the sheer emotion of it all without a whole bunch of back story and there are so many good scenes from the season (the Thanksgiving dinner comes to mind). The power of the season has already been awarded with John Lithgow receiving the award for best guest actor in a drama, too bad he thanked HBO. If he wasn't already dead they'd be killing him off after that gaff.

Hugh Laurie has been always been a bridesmaid never a bride. This may be the year he finally gets awarded. The episode he submits is all House all the time, having him in a mental institution facing his personal demons and featuring a Broadway hero with Lin Manuel (If you are not a Broadway fan do yourself a favor and at the very least check out his performance in the TONYs, as he does something very different on the stage. I'll even give you the link).

If I had to pick someone though I think I like sentimental favorite Kyle Chandler to win the award. But in all honesty the smart money is Dexter for the acting pedigree in the entire season. So I think I will go with Hall for the win. But I love Chandler, especially his pregame speech/destruction of his kids before his first game. But that final scene in Dexter is just so good...



Outstanding Actress in a Drama
Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights)
Glenn Close (Damages)
Mariska Hargitay (Special Victims Unit)
January Jones (Mad Men)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)

Julianna Margulies is the reason that "The Good Wife" got nominated for the big award. And much like Sandra Bullock at the Oscars I think she has this one in the bag.



Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Dexter
Lost
Mad Men
The Good Wife
True Blood

First off let me declare that True Blood doesn't deserve to be anywhere near this list. They have award winning material in the same way as Lady Gaga discussing her Love Muffin. They have zero chance of winning and should just be glad they made the list. Similarly The Good Wife also has no chance here. The reason the show is here is all Julianna Margulies. But at least her show seems like it is going to keep improving itself through the years.

As I said back when I was predicting the nominees I liked the remaining four series as shoo ins. But now that all four have got nominated it is tough to go from there. Of the four I think that Breaking Bad may be the weak link. While this is still a fantastic series it is going up against the champ, the best season of a show so far and a powerful finale.

Like I have said before it is tough business taking down a champ. Mad Men can sometimes drag with minutia and everyday life which is what makes the series so smart, but the episodes that they submitted are all so very powerful and have you demanding for more, which we are currently getting, thank you AMC. I think this may be the best season so far ("they couldn't even send a full reporter"). Matt Weiner's period piece is a masterful work of art and is what good television is all about.

Last season of Dexter was the best it has ever been even against the first storyline. I lost interest in the show after the second season but with so many people talking about the finale and got back into it and it did not disappoint. Veteran thespian John Lithgow is award winning as the Trinity Killer, but will Michael C. Hall and Lithgow be enough to dethrone a heavyweight contender.

Meanwhile the finale of Lost is in the books and while there are many differing viewpoints, from cried when I watched it to wasted six years, I enjoyed the finale and what this season had to offer. While there were some duds, "What Kate Did" comes to mind, the characters finding redemption and Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse playing with some of the fan theories this year made this year, coming from a fan's perspective, a sight to behold.

But Mad Men is just too smart and too well done to be toppled so I like it to win and make it three years in a row and well on their way to a fourth next year.

Well what do you guys think? What shows should be here? Will you be watching? Hit me up you know I will be.